Service revenue for direct-to-device (D2D) communications will grow at a phenomenal rate over the next five years. We’re starting from a small revenue base today, but my survey of satellite and mobile operators points to more than 100% growth every year through 2030.
While some of this growth will come from the text and light data applications that have already been announced, that’s not the part that catches my interest. That’s an exercise in extending the best-effort network into dead zones. I’m more focused on what satellites can do to provide a premium service that is better than the best-effort terrestrial network.
For an enterprise with a fleet of drones, can a D2D connection guarantee positive control of the drone at all times? The FAA would become a stronger supporter of drone business models if the network could guarantee that the drones can be controlled in every location nationwide.
Would a busy executive be willing to pay double the typical monthly service fee for a phone that never drops a call? I would. This kind of guarantee is impossible for today’s terrestrial networks to satisfy. But, in concert with satellite networks, voice and light data could potentially be guaranteed at 99.9% or even better, at least for outdoor users.
So far, we see most use cases being outdoors. Hikers, drones and cars are good examples. In studying the link budget for AST SpaceMobile, I believe that most indoor users can also be served. The huge array on the AST-S spacecraft can receive the uplink signal through a typical building’s roof and probably through that of many vehicles. That opens up the market dramatically; after all, we know that 80% of traffic is indoors, and at least half of the outdoor traffic is inside a car, train or other vehicle.
In my research, the “best effort” use cases constitute all of the revenue today and most, if not all, of the revenue in 2030. The premium revenue associated with nearly perfect coverage will become extremely valuable over time, and I won’t be surprised if premium connectivity from satellites becomes the most important contributor in the 2030s.
All of this is pretty speculative right now, and I haven’t released this forecast to my subscribers as a prediction of “what will happen.” Instead, think of this 2030 revenue breakdown as “what might happen” if mobile operators think differently. In fact, in recent discussions with satellite operators and telcos, I don’t see enough focus on guaranteed services. So, the world that I envision may not happen.
My point is that I believe, for the first time, satellite constellations will allow mobile operators to guarantee a level of coverage everywhere, at least outdoors. They need to take advantage of this. Do the hard work to steer users across these diverse networks for higher reliability. Do the hard work to converge core and RAN networks for real-time interoperability, if not actual handovers.
If our industry can move beyond “best effort” services, the sky’s the limit.
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